In recent weeks, there has been a significant surge in gold and silver prices. According to a new report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL), silver may perform as well as, or even better than, gold in the coming months. MOFSL’s report suggests that silver prices could rise to ₹1,25,000 per kilogram on the MCX and $40 per kilogram on the COMEX within the next 12 to 15 months.

Silver’s Future Price Prediction

The MOFSL report highlights silver’s impressive recent performance, with a year-on-year increase of over 40%. Currently, silver has already crossed the ₹1,00,000 mark per kilogram in India due to its reputation as a safe investment and the rising demand for industrial purposes. MOFSL has set a target of ₹81,000 for gold in the medium term and ₹86,000 in the long term, expecting it to reach $2,830 on the COMEX in the medium term and up to $3,000 in the long term.

Key Factors Driving the Precious Metals Rally

Manav Modi, Commodity Research Analyst at MOFSL, noted that factors such as market uncertainties, anticipated interest rate cuts, increasing demand, and a depreciating rupee have fueled the recent price surge in 2024. He also pointed out that the period following the U.S. presidential election will be crucial in determining the direction of gold prices in the short term.

Positive Outlook for Diwali

The report anticipates a favorable outlook for the upcoming Diwali season, driven by expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Modi mentioned, “Overall, the outlook for this Diwali is positive, providing a favorable environment for bullion.”

Historically, gold has proven to be a reliable store of value during uncertain times. The report also highlighted that if someone invested in gold during Diwali 2019, they would be enjoying a 103% return on their investment by this Diwali.

Gold’s Performance Before Diwali: Insights from Past Years

Since 2011, there have been only two instances (2015 and 2016) when gold provided negative returns in the 30 days leading up to Diwali. Except for 2022, returns before Diwali have consistently outperformed post-Diwali returns. According to Modi, “We believe there is potential for further gains in gold, with any dip presenting a buying opportunity. Our recent quarterly report suggests a possible 5-7% correction in the short term.”

Gold and Silver Price Summary Table

Commodity	Target Price (MCX)	Target Price (COMEX)	Expected Growth Period
Silver	₹1,25,000/kg	$40/kg	12-15 Months
Gold	₹81,000 (Medium)	$2,830 (Medium)	Medium Term
Gold	₹86,000 (Long)	$3,000 (Long)	Long Term

This analysis highlights the growth potential in precious metals, with both gold and silver expected to perform well in the coming months. However, investors are advised to consider these insights along with expert opinions before making investment decisions.