NEW DELHI: Monsoon rainfall in India has exceeded expectations in the crucial month of July, with a 15% higher than normal rainfall. This has resulted in a shift from a 10% rainfall deficit in June-end to a 6% surplus by the end of July. The active monsoon conditions have lasted for nearly 35 days, but this spell is expected to come to an end soon. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stated that the monsoon is likely to enter a weak phase by August 6-7. Rainfall activity has already reduced in southern and central India, causing nationwide rain figures to drop below normal in the past two days.

Despite concerns about the impact of the strengthening El Nino on rainfall in India in the second half of the season (August-September), the long wet spell has raised hopes that this year’s monsoon could end up in the normal range. The IMD had forecasted a rainfall range of 96% to 104% of the long period average for this monsoon season. The active phase of the monsoon began on June 24, and 24 out of the next 34 days saw above-normal daily rainfall in the country.

The long active monsoon spell, aided by the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a storm system, has wiped out large rain deficits in southern and central India. However, extreme rainfall in the north and states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Telangana has caused floods. As of July 30, northwest India has an overall rain surplus of 33%, central India 14%, and south India 6%. However, east and northeast India continue to reel under a rain deficit of 25%.

While 19 out of the 36 rainfall subdivisions of the country had a monsoon deficit of 20% or more a month ago, the number has reduced to six by July 30. Five of these subdivisions are in the east and northeast, which are likely to receive some rain in the next few days. The IMD chief, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, stated that Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, east Uttar Pradesh, and northern parts of Odisha and Chhattisgarh can expect good rainfall over the next five to six days. The monsoon trough is expected to shift towards the Himalayan foothills by August 6-7, signaling the start of a weak phase of the monsoon.

However, concerns remain about the impact of El Nino on the remainder of the season. The weak phase of the monsoon could last till August 20, according to some models. Rajeevan, a veteran meteorologist, and former secretary of the earth sciences ministry, emphasized that the presence of El Nino should not be underestimated in the next two months.

On a positive note, the latest government figures show that the area under kharif sowing in the country is 8.4% higher than the corresponding period of last year, indicating good rainfall and a marked increase in agricultural activity.

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