Global oil demand likely to remain low in 2025 amid weak economic activity .

Global Oil Demand Projections for 2024

World oil demand is projected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, reaching 104.3 million bpd, according to the EIA. This forecast is roughly 300,000 bpd lower than previous estimates. For 2023, demand is expected to average around 103.1 million bpd, reflecting a slight drop in expectations.

Factors Influencing Demand

The adjustments in demand forecasts are attributed to rising imports and refinery activities in China, a major global crude oil buyer. Concerns over declining industrial production and manufacturing growth in the US and Canada have also influenced these estimates.

Comparative Growth Forecasts

While the EIA expects U.S. oil demand to grow by 20.5 million bpd in 2024, other agencies like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC have varying predictions, estimating increases of 950,000 bpd and 1.74 million bpd, respectively. The outlook for 2024 remains uncertain, with global demand growth forecasts ranging from 900,000 bpd to 2 million bpd.

U.S. Production and Price Outlook

U.S. oil production is anticipated to rise slightly, averaging 13.22 million bpd this year and 13.54 million bpd in 2025. Additionally, the EIA has revised its oil price forecasts downward, expecting U.S. crude to average $76.91 per barrel in 2024, a reduction of 2.4% from earlier predictions.